July 2015 existing home sales reached a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 5.59 million, the most since February 2007 and were up 10.3 percent from a year ago according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sales were also up 2.0 percent sequentially from a revised 5.48 million SAAR in June 2015. Median price rose 5.4 percent from a year ago to $234,000 and has now risen 41 consecutive months year-over-year.
The following graph shows the continuing gains posted in existing home sales and median prices. Prices, which are not seasonally adjusted, showed historical trends dipping slightly in July compared to June.
The next two graphs show the monthly year-over-year comparison of home sales and median home prices – not seasonally adjusted. Note the significant year-over-year gains in sales in the past two months.
Months inventory is the best proxy for the interaction of supply and demand on median prices and portends future price trends. As shown in the following graph, it has now declined to the lowest level in more than one-half decade. At a current 4.4 months’ supply (SAAR) expected continued rising year-over-year prices. Many economists consider six months as normal inventory.
Other details in the NAR July existing home sales report include:
- All cash sales rose slightly to 23 percent versus 22 percent in June, but down from 29 percent a year ago
- Distressed sales made up of foreclosures and short sales fell to just 7 percent of all closings, down from 8 percent in June and 9 percent a year ago
- Foreclosures were just 5 percent of transactions and sold for an average discount of 17 percent when compared to non-distressed properties
- Short sales made up 2 percent of July’s closings and had a 12 percent average discount versus non-distressed homes
- While the typical time on the market was 42 days for July sales, short sales took a median 135 days, foreclosures 49 days and non-distressed properties 41 days
- 43 percent of homes sold in July 2015 were on the market for less than one month
- Investors bought 13 percent of all July closings and paid cash almost two-thirds of the time (64 percent)
- First-time homebuyers made up just 28 percent of closings versus a previous normal 40 percent in years past
- Single family home sales were up 11.0 percent from a year ago at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.96 million
- Condominium sales, though down 3.1 percent sequentially from June, were up 5.0 percent versus a year ago at 630,000 on a SAAR
To read entire NAR press release plus links to data click http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2015/08/existing-home-sales-maintain-solid-growth-in-july
In addition to these metrics, NAR reported that the July 2015 pending home sales index was up 7.4 percent from a year ago but only 0.5 percent sequentially from June
Housing is heading quickly back into the normal range – and may in actuality already have arrived. If you are waiting for the housing to return, in many markets you already missed the ride.
Ted